3
Val's Twinstar
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 65
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength97%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 28/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 17/09/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 27/10/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 21/04/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 22/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |