1
Chardu
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 28
Thistledown · Race 6 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength83%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/12/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/02/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 12/03/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 30/03/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 07/05/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 26/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 15/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |