2
Just Runnin
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 54
Thistledown · Race 6 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-11-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 09/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 10/11/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 24/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 10/12/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |