1
Biscuits 'n Gravy
3yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 72
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength88%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 7th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 05/08/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 26/08/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 18/09/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 21/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 11/05/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 02/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |