Axcel
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 75
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-03-11 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-01-17 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-01-05 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2023-06-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2023 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 26/04/2023 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 24/06/2023 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 05/01/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 17/01/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 11/03/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 22/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |