9
It's Last Call
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 68
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength85%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-11-07 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-10-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 09/09/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 26/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 23/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 07/11/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 25/11/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 09/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 28/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |