7
Trouble Or Nothin
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 56
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength34%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/02/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 11/03/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 25/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 18/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 21/07/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |