3
Alafdhal
8yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 53
Yarmouth · Gold & Silver Exchange Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 6f 3y
#4
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength49%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Newmarket | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Yarmouth | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-10 | Lingfield | 6 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-01-27 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Lingfield | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength19%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/12/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 13/12/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 30/12/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 14/01/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 27/01/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 10/02/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/06/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 28/06/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 55% | +0.49 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |