4
Troublesome Guest
2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 75
Yarmouth · Strawberry Fields Stud Nursery · 5f 42y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength94%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +2.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Windsor | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Newmarket | 1 | 8th | 4th | +4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 13th | 9th | +3 |
| 2026-05-16 | Newmarket | 2 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 17/06/2026 | 13th | 66/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 10/07/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |