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4

Fornido

4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 50

Yarmouth · Brandfords Restaurant & Bars Handicap · 1m 6f 17y

#6

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Suited by the increase in trip when opening his account over this trip at Southwell in October and holding form well on all-weather earlier this year, keeping on fourth of 11 in handicap at Lingfield (2m) in March. Likely he can be competitive from this sort of mark back on turf.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength27%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 23/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 52 · 1m4f14y Std 132 · beat its mark23/09/2025 · OR 52 par23/096OR 526 @ Lingfield 14/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 50 · 1m4f Std 124 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 50 par6 @ Southwell 30/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 48 · 1m6f21y Std 120 · beat its mark30/10/2025 · OR 48 par30/106OR 486 @ Chelmsford City 26/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 51 · 1m5f66y Std 127 · beat its mark26/11/2025 · OR 51 par6 @ Lingfield 07/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 51 · 1m7f169y Std 123 · beat its mark07/01/2026 · OR 51 par7/016OR 516 @ Lingfield 17/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 50 · 1m7f169y Std 127 · beat its mark17/01/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Southwell 07/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 52 · 1m6f21y Std 130 · beat its mark07/02/2026 · OR 52 par7/026OR 526 @ Southwell 13/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 51 · 1m6f21y Std 131 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Lingfield 27/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 50 · 1m7f169y Std 124 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 50 par27/036OR 50projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-27Lingfield64th4th0
2026-03-13Southwell64th4th0
2026-02-07Southwell64th4th0
2026-01-17Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-01-07Lingfield69th9th0
2025-11-26Chelmsford City69th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0926/117/0227/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength57%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/09/20254th25/10%63%+0.63
14/10/202510th33/10%40%+0.40
30/10/20251st28/10%100%+1.00
26/11/20259th8/158%33%-0.25
07/01/20269th40/10%11%+0.11
17/01/20262nd25/10%88%+0.88
07/02/20264th8/158%63%+0.05
13/03/20264th11/142%57%+0.15
27/03/20264th10/147%70%+0.23