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2

Urban Warrior

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 54

Yarmouth · Brandfords Restaurant & Bars Handicap · 1m 6f 17y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/4

Win Prob

20%

Place Prob

26%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Low-mileage 4-y-o who is proving consistent in handicaps, albeit again failing to justify strong support when third of 9 at Southwell (1½m) 2 weeks ago. Goes back up in trip now with cheekpieces added and he's one of the likelier types.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength68%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Leicester 26/04/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 1m2f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS26/0455 @ Kempton 10/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 1m Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS10/1054 @ Kempton 03/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 1m Sta 131 · HIGHER CLASS3/1146 @ Wolverhampton 12/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 59 · 1m5f219y Std 134 · beat its mark12/01/2026 · OR 59 par12/016OR 595 @ Yarmouth 20/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 58 · 1m2f23y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 58 par20/055OR 586 @ Yarmouth 10/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 56 · 1m6f17y Sft 131 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 56 par10/066OR 566 @ Southwell 23/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 55 · 1m4f14y Std 135 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 55 par23/076OR 55projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-23Southwell63rd3rd0
2026-06-10Yarmouth63rd3rd0
2026-05-20Yarmouth54th3rd+1
2026-01-12Wolverhampton64th4th0
2025-11-03Kempton46th4th+2
2025-10-10Kempton59th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0412/0123/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength66%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/04/202510th18/15%0%-0.05
10/10/20259th66/10%20%+0.20
03/11/20256th80/10%17%+0.17
12/01/20264th10/382%67%-0.16
20/05/20264th4/179%50%-0.29
10/06/20263rd5/287%75%-0.12
23/07/20263rd5/493%75%-0.18