6
Mayflower Rock
3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 50
Yarmouth · Bet Central Classified Stakes · 5f 42y
#6
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength48%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Yarmouth | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Windsor | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength19%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 11/05/2026 | 4th | 100/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 02/06/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/07/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |