5
Sir Duke
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 81
Belmont Park · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Belmont Park | Samuel Marin | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Saratoga | Ricardo Jr Santana | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Saratoga | Tyler Gaffalione | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-03-29 | Aqueduct | Christopher Elliott | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 37/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 23/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 02/10/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 91% | +0.75 |