Bridle A Butterfly
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 8 · OR 95
Belmont Park · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
34%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Saratoga | Jose Ortiz | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | Flavien Prat | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | Kendrick Carmouche | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Gulfstream | J G Torrealba | ? | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-03-16 | Fair Grounds | Sofia Vives | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-16 | Fair Grounds | Brian Jr Hernandez | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 04/07/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 06/09/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 16/02/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 16/03/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 24/04/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |