4
Catch A Tiger
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 4 · OR 84
Belmont Park · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Finger Lakes | Andre Worrie | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Saratoga | Katie Davis | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-02-20 | Gulfstream | Tyler Gaffalione | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-01-29 | Gulfstream | Micah Husbands | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-12-28 | Gulfstream | Tyler Gaffalione | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-03 | Woodbine | Pietro Moran | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 4-10 · tight 57/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength14%
Delivery trend +6.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 03/08/2025 | 4th | 4/5 | 96% | 25% | -0.71 |
| 12/09/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 03/10/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 28/12/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 29/01/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 20/02/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 23/07/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |