5
Counter Move
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 5 · OR 83
Belmont Park · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
57%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Belmont Park | Samuel Marin | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | Tyler Gaffalione | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | Javier Castellano | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Belmont At The Big A | Dalila Rivera | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-23 | Aqueduct | Manuel Franco | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-03-20 | Aqueduct | Manuel Franco | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 81/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.3% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 43% | -0.47 |
| 14/11/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 31/12/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 20/03/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 23/04/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 60% | -0.35 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 09/07/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 24/09/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |