Pineland
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 7 · OR 101
Belmont Park · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Belmont Park | Dylan Davis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Saratoga | Javier Castellano | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Woodbine | Jose Campos | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Delaware Park | Martin Chuan | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Churchill Downs | J R Leparoux | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Keeneland | J R Leparoux | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 24/01/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 16/03/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 09/04/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 07/05/2026 | 10th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 28/06/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 29% | -0.54 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 07/10/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |