1

Tacticality

3yo Colt · 8-11 · Draw 1 · OR 94

Belmont Park · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f

#3

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 31/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 1m110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS31/08C6C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 24/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 85 · 1m110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 85 parC6 @ Gulfstream 11/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 85 · 1m110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/01/2026 · OR 85 par11/01C6OR 85C6 @ Gulfstream 12/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 89 · 1m Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/03/2026 · OR 89 parC5 @ Keeneland 10/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 97 · 1m110y Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 97 par10/04C5OR 97C6 @ Monmouth Park 24/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 98 · 1m110y 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/05/2026 · OR 98 parC8 @ Saratoga 06/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 98 · 1m Fas 122 · below its mark06/09/2026 · OR 98 par6/09C8OR 98C7 @ Belmont Park 04/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 92 · 6f Fm 123 · below its mark04/10/2026 · OR 92 par4/10C7OR 92projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-04Belmont ParkA Fresu?3rd3rd0
2026-09-06SaratogaManuel Franco?5th6th−1
2026-05-24Monmouth ParkJose Gomez?1st0th+1
2026-04-10KeenelandFlavien Prat?10th8th+2
2026-03-12GulfstreamLuis Saez?3rd2nd+1
2026-01-11GulfstreamDavid Egan?4th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0812/036/094/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 40/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength60%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/08/20255th3/184%56%-0.29
24/10/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
11/01/20264th10/147%63%+0.15
12/03/20263rd5/174%71%-0.02
10/04/202610th5/174%18%-0.56
24/05/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
06/09/20265th4/696%56%-0.41
04/10/20263rd12/137%80%+0.43