Tall Paul
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 6 · OR 85
Belmont Park · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Aqueduct | Manuel Franco | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-02-11 | Aqueduct | Christopher Elliott | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-12-10 | Aqueduct | Flavien Prat | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-08-25 | Del Mar | Drayden Dyke Van | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2024-11-10 | Aqueduct | Dylan Davis | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2024-10-05 | Belmont At The Big A | Dylan Davis | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2023 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 16/10/2023 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 14/09/2024 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 05/10/2024 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 91% | +0.33 |
| 10/11/2024 | 9th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 25/08/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 10/12/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 11/02/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 24/04/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |