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2

Our Sweet Harpie

3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 60

Belmont Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼3
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Delaware Park 21/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS21/07C6C6 @ Belmont Park 10/10/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 71 · 7f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/10/2026 · OR 71 par10/10C6OR 71projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-10Belmont ParkKendrick Carmouche?8th5th+3
2026-07-21Delaware ParkAngel Rodriguez?6th3rd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0710/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 8-8 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -18.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/07/20266th10/147%29%-0.19
10/10/20268th12/137%0%-0.37