5
Sparks Will Fly
3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 65
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▼1
Strength25%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Belmont Park | Jose Lezcano | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Saratoga | Jose Ortiz | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +56.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 09/10/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 90% | +0.11 |