Goodproblemtohave

2yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 7 · OR 71

Belmont Park · Race 4 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 6f 110y

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength29%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-03	Belmont Park	Flavien Prat	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-08-06	Saratoga	Jaime Rodriguez	?	7th	6th	+1	3.6
2026-07-17	Saratoga	Jaime Rodriguez	?	3rd	2nd	+1	7.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 27/100

▬ EDGING AHEAD

Trend▼

Strength54%

Delivery trend -13.2% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
17/07/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	78%	+0.41
06/08/2026	7th	9/2	76%	33%	-0.43
03/10/2026	3rd	7/1	63%	78%	+0.15