Early And Often
2yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 45
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 7.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Belmont Park | Javier Castellano | ? | 11th | 8th | +3 |
| 2026-08-20 | Saratoga | Javier Castellano | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-07-23 | Saratoga | Jose Lezcano | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 18/09/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |