IvyArcIvyArc
1

Fire Angel

2yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 1 · OR 59

Belmont Park · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼2
Strength76%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 10/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 1m Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS10/07C6C6 @ Saratoga 09/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS9/08C6C7 @ Saratoga 03/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 63 · 1m110y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/09/2026 · OR 63 par3/09C7OR 63projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03SaratogaJose Lezcano?8th6th+2
2026-08-09SaratogaRicardo Jr Santana?8th5th+3
2026-07-10SaratogaManuel Franco?6th3rd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/079/083/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 77/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +39.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/07/20266th8/158%0%-0.58
09/08/20268th12/137%36%-0.00
03/09/20268th16/116%36%+0.21