Freshly Minted

2yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 7 · OR 40

Belmont Park · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▼2

Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-02	Belmont Park	A Fresu	?	8th	8th	0	2.0
2026-08-26	Saratoga	Ricardo Jr Santana	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2026-07-17	Saratoga	Ruben Silvera	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 4-6 · tight 68/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength52%

Delivery trend +12.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
17/07/2026	9th	33/1	0%	11%	+0.11
26/08/2026	5th	25/1	0%	33%	+0.33
02/10/2026	8th	25/1	0%	36%	+0.36