Luna Dancer

2yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 9 · OR 62

Belmont Park · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

80%

Place Prob

65%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼1

Strength22%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.5

Today:

Class gap: +1.0

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-09	Belmont Park	Samuel Marin	?	8th	6th	+2	4.4
2026-09-09	Horseshoe Indianapolis	Micah Meeks	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 9-9 · tight 71/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -67.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
09/09/2026	3rd	14/1	26%	78%	+0.51
09/10/2026	8th	9/1	53%	36%	-0.16