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2

Mischief In Motion

4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 2 · OR 94

Belmont Park · Race 6 - Athenia Stakes · 1m 1f

#2

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

28%

Place Prob

28%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Laurel Park 07/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 90 · 1m Fas 116 · below its mark07/06/2025 · OR 90 par7/06C5OR 90C6 @ Laurel Park 21/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 84 · 1m110y Fas 119 · below its mark21/06/2025 · OR 84 parC5 @ Colonial Downs 06/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 73 · 1m110y Gd 120 · beat its mark06/08/2025 · OR 73 par6/08C5OR 73BHA80 @ Colonial Downs 06/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 80 · 1m1f Sft 118 · below its mark06/09/2025 · OR 80 parC5 @ Delaware Park 27/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 88 · 1m1f Sft 119 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 88 par27/09C5OR 88C5 @ Gulfstream 31/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 97 · 1m110y Fm 123 · below its mark31/10/2025 · OR 97 parBHA99 @ Gulfstream 13/12/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 99 · 1m110y Fm 122 · below its mark13/12/2025 · OR 99 par13/1299OR 99C5 @ Monmouth Park 22/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 99 · 1m110y Gd 118 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 99 parC5 @ Laurel Park 26/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 96 · 1m1f Gd 120 · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 96 par26/09C5OR 96projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26Laurel ParkAngel Cruz?1st1st0
2026-08-22Monmouth Park—?5th5th0
2025-12-13GulfstreamEmisael JaramilloBHA9911th18th−5
2025-10-31GulfstreamEmisael Jaramillo?2nd2nd0
2025-09-27Delaware ParkAngel Cruz?1st1st0
2025-09-06Colonial DownsJorge RuizBHA806th10th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/066/0913/1226/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/06/20255th7/282%43%-0.39
21/06/20256th5/174%0%-0.74
06/08/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
06/09/20256th9/276%29%-0.48
27/09/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
31/10/20252nd16/116%88%+0.72
13/12/202511th15/261%9%-0.51
22/08/20265th12/137%0%-0.37
26/09/20261st14/126%100%+0.74