Miwa
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 106
Belmont Park · Race 6 - Athenia Stakes · 1m 1f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | Jose Ortiz | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Churchill Downs | Axel Concepcion | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-27 | Churchill Downs | Jose Ortiz | BHA101 | 10th | 17th | −6 |
| 2025-10-19 | Keeneland | Jose Ortiz | ? | 6th | 1st | +4 |
| 2025-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | Jose Ortiz | ? | 3rd | -2th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 06/07/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 28/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 06/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 19/10/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |
| 27/11/2025 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 10% | -0.48 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 71% | -0.23 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 0% | -0.96 |