3
Ontario
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 91
Belmont Park · Race 6 - Athenia Stakes · 1m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Woodbine | Rafael Hernandez | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Saratoga | Jose Ortiz | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | Brian Jr Hernandez | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Fair Grounds | Ben Curtis | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-6 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 91% | +0.20 |
| 22/01/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 17/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 14/03/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 44% | -0.44 |
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 13/09/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 57% | -0.36 |