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Storm Miami

5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 106

Belmont Park · Race 6 - Athenia Stakes · 1m 1f

#3

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

9%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼3
Strength100%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.2
Today:
Class gap: +3.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Fair Grounds 27/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 105 · 1m110y Fm 120 · below its mark27/11/2025 · OR 105 par27/11C6OR 105C6 @ Fair Grounds 11/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 108 · 5f110y Fm 120 · below its mark11/12/2025 · OR 108 parC5 @ Turfway Park 01/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 102 · 1m 120 · below its mark01/03/2026 · OR 102 par1/03C5OR 102C5 @ Laurel Park 18/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 94 · 1m Fm 124 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 94 parC1 @ Belmont At The Big A 01/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 99 · 1m3f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 99 par1/05C1OR 99C1 @ Delaware Park 13/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 98 · 1m3f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 98 parC0 @ Saratoga 02/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 105 · 1m4f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 105 par2/08C?OR 105C1 @ Saratoga 28/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 104 · 1m3f Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 104 parC0 @ Belmont Park 01/10/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 104 · 1m2f Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/10/2026 · OR 104 par1/10C?OR 104projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-01Belmont ParkJohn Velazquez?7th2nd+4
2026-08-28SaratogaJohn Velazquez?2nd-3th+4
2026-08-02SaratogaJohn Velazquez?2nd-3th+4
2026-06-13Delaware ParkLuis Saez?4th-1th+4
2026-05-01Belmont At The Big AVictor Carrasco?2nd-3th+4
2026-04-18Laurel ParkVictor Carrasco?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1118/042/081/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 83/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.2% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/11/20252nd7/491%83%-0.07
11/12/20255th11/1094%43%-0.51
01/03/20265th16/116%33%+0.18
18/04/20264th10/147%50%+0.03
01/05/20262nd14/126%75%+0.49
13/06/20264th9/276%40%-0.36
02/08/20262nd20/10%88%+0.88
28/08/20262nd2/189%86%-0.04
01/10/20267th25/10%40%+0.40