11
Art Fair
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 11 · OR 91
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Belmont Park | Kendrick Carmouche | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Saratoga | Kendrick Carmouche | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Belmont At The Big A | Kendrick Carmouche | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Belmont At The Big A | Jaime Rodriguez | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-07-27 | Saratoga | Flavien Prat | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-07-12 | Saratoga | Flavien Prat | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 50/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength77%
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 08/05/2025 | 7th | 11/8 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 22/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 12/07/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 27/07/2025 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 18/09/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 55% | -0.19 |