9
First Blessing
3yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 9 · OR 90
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Saratoga | Jaime Rodriguez | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | Edgard Zayas | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | Jose Ortiz | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Belmont At The Big A | Edgard Zayas | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Aqueduct | Reylu Gutierrez | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Aqueduct | Reylu Gutierrez | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength14%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 05/02/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 26/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 20/03/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 10/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 28/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 14/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |