Luz De Guia
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 4 · OR 89
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Belmont Park | Rajiv Maragh | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Saratoga | Katie Davis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Saratoga | Katie Davis | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | Ruben Silvera | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Saratoga | Katie Davis | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Gulfstream | Miguel Vasquez | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 01/03/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 09/07/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 14/08/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 08/10/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |