5

Tapwrits Temper

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 5 · OR 78

Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength16%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Oaklawn Park 21/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 82 · 6f 119 · below its mark21/12/2025 · OR 82 par21/12C8OR 82C8 @ Oaklawn Park 05/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 84 · 6f 122 · below its mark05/02/2026 · OR 84 parC8 @ Oaklawn Park 22/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 76 · 6f Fas 121 · below its mark22/02/2026 · OR 76 par22/02C8OR 76C8 @ Aqueduct 05/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 74 · 6f110y Slo 123 · below its mark05/03/2026 · OR 74 parC8 @ Aqueduct 11/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 70 · 6f110y 126 · below its mark11/04/2026 · OR 70 par11/04C8OR 70C8 @ Belmont At The Big A 09/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 72 · 6f 126 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 72 parC8 @ Belmont At The Big A 20/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 71 · 7f Fas 126 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 71 par20/06C8OR 71C8 @ Saratoga 23/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 73 · 6f Fas 126 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 73 parC8 @ Belmont Park 20/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 74 · 7f Slo 126 · beat its mark20/09/2026 · OR 74 par20/09C8OR 74projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-20Belmont ParkManuel Franco?1st2nd−1
2026-07-23SaratogaManuel Franco?4th5th−1
2026-06-20Belmont At The Big AManuel Franco?1st2nd−1
2026-05-09Belmont At The Big AEdgard Zayas?4th5th−1
2026-04-11AqueductEdgard Zayas?2nd3rd−1
2026-03-05AqueductJaime Rodriguez?6th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/125/0320/0620/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 29/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength52%

Delivery trend +5.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/12/20254th5/174%67%-0.07
05/02/20266th25/10%29%+0.29
22/02/20268th9/153%30%-0.23
05/03/20266th3/184%0%-0.84
11/04/20262nd2/189%80%-0.09
09/05/20264th4/179%40%-0.39
20/06/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
23/07/20264th12/137%67%+0.30
20/09/20261st10/147%100%+0.53