Aporia
3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 11 · OR 93
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
91%
Place Prob
55%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Saratoga | Javier Castellano | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Monmouth Park | Luis Rivera Jr | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Presque Isle Downs | Samuel Marin | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Presque Isle Downs | Antonio Gallardo | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Gulfstream | Diego Herrera | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Tampa Bay Downs | Samuel Marin | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 29/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 91% | +0.03 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 82% | +0.06 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 20/07/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |