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6

Come To Mama

5yo Mare · 9-0 · Draw 6 · OR 88

Belmont Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 30/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 90 · 6f110y 123 · below its mark30/09/2025 · OR 90 par30/09C6OR 90C8 @ Laurel Park 24/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 89 · 1m Fm 123 · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 89 parC8 @ Laurel Park 08/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 87 · 5f110y Fm 123 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 87 par8/05C8OR 87C8 @ Laurel Park 13/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 88 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 88 parC7 @ Colonial Downs 06/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 84 · 6f Fm 122 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 84 par6/07C7OR 84C7 @ Colonial Downs 26/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 84 · 5f110y Fm 124 · below its mark26/07/2026 · OR 84 parC5 @ Colonial Downs 27/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 87 · 5f110y Fm 122 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 87 par27/08C5OR 87C5 @ Laurel Park 12/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 90 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 90 parC5 @ Keeneland 07/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 92 · 5f110y Fm 121 · beat its mark07/10/2026 · OR 92 par7/10C5OR 92projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-07KeenelandTyler Gaffalione?3rd3rd0
2026-09-12Laurel ParkHoracio Karamanos?3rd2nd+1
2026-08-27Colonial DownsHoracio Karamanos?2nd2nd0
2026-07-26Colonial DownsNik Juarez?2nd4th−2
2026-07-06Colonial DownsNik Juarez?1st3rd−2
2026-06-13Laurel ParkHoracio Karamanos?7th10th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0913/0627/087/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 87/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +11.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/09/20254th10/147%50%+0.03
24/04/20268th5/174%22%-0.51
08/05/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
13/06/20267th10/147%0%-0.47
06/07/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
26/07/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08
27/08/20262nd13/266%83%+0.18
12/09/20263rd25/10%71%+0.71
07/10/20263rd20/10%82%+0.82