12
Di Natale
6yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 12 · OR 100
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Saratoga | Javier Castellano | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Aqueduct | Javier Castellano | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-18 | Turfway Park | Luan Machado | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Belmont At The Big A | Javier Castellano | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 5-7 · tight 75/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength54%
Delivery trend -10.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 18/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 89% | -0.05 |
| 17/04/2026 | 2nd | 1/3 | 98% | 86% | -0.13 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |