IvyArcIvyArc
7

One Last Knock

4yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 7 · OR 86

Belmont Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 21/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 81 · 5f110y Gd 119 · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 81 par21/08C6OR 81C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 20/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 82 · 6f Fm 120 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 82 parC5 @ Belmont At The Big A 17/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 87 · 6f Fm 120 · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 87 par17/10C5OR 87C5 @ Aqueduct 15/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 90 · 6f Fm 120 · beat its mark15/11/2025 · OR 90 parC5 @ Aqueduct 16/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 84 · 6f Fm 126 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 84 par16/04C5OR 84C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 08/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 84 · 6f Fm 126 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 84 parC5 @ Saratoga 03/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 84 · 5f110y Fm 126 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 84 par3/07C5OR 84C6 @ Saratoga 21/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 85 · 5f110y Fm 126 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 85 parC5 @ Belmont Park 02/10/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 87 · 6f110y Fm 126 · below its mark02/10/2026 · OR 87 par2/10C5OR 87projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-02Belmont ParkChristopher Elliott?7th7th0
2026-08-21SaratogaKendrick Carmouche?5th6th−1
2026-07-03SaratogaJaime Rodriguez?3rd3rd0
2026-05-08Belmont At The Big AKendrick Carmouche?1st1st0
2026-04-16AqueductKendrick Carmouche?2nd2nd0
2025-11-15AqueductKendrick Carmouche?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0815/113/072/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 9-12 · tight 78/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.9% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/08/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
20/09/20252nd10/147%89%+0.42
17/10/20252nd4/179%75%-0.04
15/11/20252nd5/287%89%+0.02
16/04/20262nd9/488%89%+0.01
08/05/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
03/07/20263rd5/174%75%+0.01
21/08/20265th9/153%20%-0.33
02/10/20267th20/10%45%+0.45