8

One More Guitar

3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 8 · OR 91

Belmont Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 02/08/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 6f 1192/08C6C6 @ Saratoga 28/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 54 · 5f110y Fm 119 · beat its mark28/08/2025 · OR 54 parC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 18/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 69 · 1m110y Fm 119 · below its mark18/09/2025 · OR 69 par18/09C6OR 69C6 @ Fair Grounds 14/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 78 · 5f110y Fm 120 · beat its mark14/02/2026 · OR 78 parC6 @ Fair Grounds 15/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 83 · 5f110y Fm 120 · beat its mark15/03/2026 · OR 83 par15/03C6OR 83C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 09/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 93 · 6f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 93 parC5 @ Saratoga 03/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 94 · 5f110y Fm 122 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 94 par3/07C5OR 94C5 @ Saratoga 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 92 · 5f110y Fm 122 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 92 par1/08C5OR 92projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-01SaratogaKatie Davis?3rd3rd0
2026-07-03SaratogaJose Lezcano?6th6th0
2026-05-09Belmont At The Big AKendrick Carmouche?6th5th+1
2026-03-15Fair GroundsSofia Vives?1st2nd−1
2026-02-14Fair GroundsSofia Vives?3rd4th−1
2025-09-18Belmont At The Big AKendrick Carmouche?5th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0814/023/071/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 3-12 · tight 45/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength33%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/08/202510th33/10%0%0.00
28/08/20255th16/116%56%+0.40
18/09/20255th10/147%33%-0.14
14/02/20263rd10/147%75%+0.28
15/03/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
09/05/20266th5/174%29%-0.45
03/07/20266th15/261%38%-0.23
01/08/20263rd33/10%78%+0.78