9
Vajra
3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 9 · OR 89
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Belmont Park | Edgard Zayas | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Saratoga | Flavien Prat | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Ellis Park | Cristian Torres | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-08-28 | Saratoga | Ricardo Jr Santana | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-07-26 | Saratoga | Jose Ortiz | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-06-27 | Churchill Downs | Luis Saez | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 87/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +19.5% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |
| 26/07/2025 | 5th | 5/4 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 28/08/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 82% | -0.10 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 02/10/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 91% | +0.65 |