Yaupon De Replay
3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 2 · OR 96
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Naas | Dylan Browne McMonagle | BHA96 | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-04-14 | Chantilly | Chris Hayes | ? | 11th | 6th | +4 |
| 2025-10-18 | Leopardstown | Chris Hayes | 1 | 4th | -1th | +4 |
| 2025-09-22 | Fairyhouse | Chris Hayes | 1 | 1st | -4th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -12.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 18/10/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 14/04/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |