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3

Dance For Green

5yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 85

Charles Town · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

22%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Charles Town 09/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 87 · 4f110y 122 · below its mark09/10/2025 · OR 87 par9/10C8OR 87C8 @ Charles Town 25/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 81 · 6f110y 122 · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 81 parC5 @ Charles Town 03/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 88 · 7f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/01/2026 · OR 88 par3/01C5OR 88C7 @ Charles Town 19/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 89 · 6f110y 122 · beat its mark19/02/2026 · OR 89 parC5 @ Charles Town 17/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 92 · 6f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 92 par17/04C5OR 92C5 @ Charles Town 29/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 88 · 6f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 88 parC7 @ Charles Town 27/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 90 · 6f110y Fas 126 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 90 par27/06C7OR 90C7 @ Charles Town 02/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 87 · 6f110y 122 · below its mark02/08/2026 · OR 87 parC8 @ Charles Town 27/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 81 · 6f110y Fas 124 · beat its mark27/09/2026 · OR 81 par27/09C8OR 81projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-27Charles TownJeiron Barbosa?1st2nd−1
2026-08-02Charles TownJeiron Barbosa?8th8th0
2026-06-27Charles TownJahnxander Raspaldo?4th4th0
2026-05-29Charles TownWarren Iii Ebow?1st-1th+2
2026-04-17Charles TownWarren Iii Ebow?2nd0th+2
2026-02-19Charles TownMoises Santaella?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/1019/0227/0627/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 59/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength87%

Delivery trend -0.2% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/10/20257th11/271%14%-0.57
25/10/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
03/01/20268th8/158%22%-0.36
19/02/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
17/04/20262nd9/276%80%+0.04
29/05/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
27/06/20264th12/137%50%+0.13
02/08/20268th15/261%0%-0.61
27/09/20261st11/486%100%+0.14