4
Improbable Journey
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 72
Charles Town · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Charles Town | Abnel Bocachica | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Charles Town | Juan Nunez | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Charles Town | Alexis Espinoza | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Charles Town | Sunday Jr Diaz | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Charles Town | Sunday Jr Diaz | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Charles Town | Sunday Jr Diaz | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 6-7 · tight 84/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 09/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 05/02/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 19/02/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 12/03/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 26/04/2026 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 22% | -0.60 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 14/06/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 14% | -0.54 |
| 02/10/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |