It's Sizzling Time
8yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 6 · OR 85
Charles Town · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Charles Town | Moises Santaella | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | Charles Town | Moises Santaella | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Charles Town | Warren Iii Ebow | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-22 | Delaware Park | Raul Mena | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Laurel Park | Christian Maldonado | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Laurel Park | Jean Briceno | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 28/03/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 24/04/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 07/08/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 17% | -0.66 |
| 13/09/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 10/10/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |