Larz

6yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 7 · OR 71

Charles Town · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f 110y

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength10%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: -0.3

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-10	Charles Town	Agustin Martinez	?	10th	10th	0	1.0
2026-08-23	Charles Town	Nomar Bueno Arroyo	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-08-14	Charles Town	Nomar Bueno Arroyo	?	6th	5th	+1	5.2
2026-07-30	Charles Town	Nomar Bueno Arroyo	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-05-16	Charles Town	Moises Santaella	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-05-03	Charles Town	Moises Santaella	?	5th	6th	−1	3.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · tight 68/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▬

Strength0%

Delivery trend +0.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
27/02/2026	6th	15/2	61%	29%	-0.32
19/03/2026	1st	6/4	92%	100%	+0.08
17/04/2026	3rd	11/4	86%	60%	-0.26
03/05/2026	5th	4/1	79%	33%	-0.46
16/05/2026	1st	9/1	53%	100%	+0.47
30/07/2026	1st	10/1	47%	100%	+0.53
14/08/2026	6th	9/2	76%	0%	-0.76
23/08/2026	5th	12/1	37%	20%	-0.17
10/10/2026	10th	25/1	0%	0%	0.00