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Boundforabruisin

4yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 80

Charles Town · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/5

Win Prob

89%

Place Prob

65%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲1
Strength2%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Charles Town 02/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 59 · 6f110y 122 · below its mark02/10/2025 · OR 59 par2/10C8OR 59C8 @ Charles Town 17/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 66 · 6f110y Fas 120 · below its mark17/10/2025 · OR 66 parC8 @ Charles Town 02/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 67 · 7f Fas 120 · beat its mark02/11/2025 · OR 67 par2/11C8OR 67C8 @ Charles Town 30/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 66 · 7f 124 · below its mark30/11/2025 · OR 66 parC8 @ Charles Town 03/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 71 · 6f110y Fas 124 · below its mark03/01/2026 · OR 71 par3/01C8OR 71C5 @ Charles Town 02/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 74 · 6f110y Slo 122 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 74 parC5 @ Charles Town 28/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 79 · 7f Fas 122 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 79 par28/08C5OR 79C5 @ Charles Town 03/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 73 · 6f110y Gd 122 · beat its mark03/10/2026 · OR 73 parC5 @ Charles Town 16/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 79 · 1m110y Gd 122 · beat its mark16/10/2026 · OR 79 par16/10C5OR 79projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-16Charles TownWarren Iii Ebow?2nd2nd0
2026-10-03Charles TownArnaldo Bocachica?2nd2nd0
2026-08-28Charles TownNomar Bueno Arroyo?4th4th0
2026-08-02Charles TownArnaldo Bocachica?3rd3rd0
2026-01-03Charles TownJoe Stokes?4th7th−3
2025-11-30Charles TownElias Peltroche?3rd6th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/1030/1128/0816/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 76/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength99%

Delivery trend +1.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/10/20255th14/126%43%+0.17
17/10/20255th9/276%20%-0.56
02/11/20251st9/153%100%+0.47
30/11/20253rd7/282%67%-0.15
03/01/20264th7/163%50%-0.13
02/08/20263rd3/184%67%-0.18
28/08/20264th11/271%63%-0.09
03/10/20262nd11/486%88%+0.02
16/10/20262nd8/158%83%+0.25