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2

Bull Rider

4yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 2 · OR 70

Charles Town · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

9%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲2
Strength15%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Charles Town 11/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 58 · 7f 123 · below its mark11/12/2025 · OR 58 par11/12C8OR 58C8 @ Charles Town 16/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 42 · 6f110y Fas 124 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 42 parC5 @ Charles Town 21/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 49 · 7f 122 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 49 par21/06C5OR 49C8 @ Colonial Downs 13/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 58 · 6f Gd 122 · below its mark13/07/2026 · OR 58 parC8 @ Charles Town 24/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 60 · 4f110y Fas 124 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 60 par24/07C8OR 60C8 @ Charles Town 07/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 59 · 7f Slo 124 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 59 parC5 @ Charles Town 28/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 62 · 7f Fas 122 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 62 par28/08C5OR 62C8 @ Charles Town 11/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 56 · 6f110y Fas 126 · below its mark11/09/2026 · OR 56 parC8 @ Charles Town 01/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 59 · 7f Fas 126 · beat its mark01/10/2026 · OR 59 par1/10C8OR 59projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-01Charles TownJacqueline Davis?1st4th−3
2026-09-11Charles TownFredy Peltroche?5th8th−3
2026-08-28Charles TownJacqueline Davis?6th6th0
2026-08-07Charles TownJacqueline Davis?1st4th−3
2026-07-24Charles TownJacqueline Davis?4th7th−3
2026-07-13Colonial DownsFredy Peltroche?6th9th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/1213/0728/081/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 34/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength53%

Delivery trend -2.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/12/20257th12/137%25%-0.12
16/05/20262nd20/10%83%+0.83
21/06/20267th40/10%14%+0.14
13/07/20266th33/10%0%0.00
24/07/20264th5/174%40%-0.34
07/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
28/08/20266th12/137%38%+0.01
11/09/20265th4/179%43%-0.36
01/10/20261st15/261%100%+0.39