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6

Candy Man Can

5yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 6 · OR 75

Charles Town · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Charles Town 17/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 78 · 7f Fas 122 · beat its mark17/01/2026 · OR 78 par17/01C5OR 78C8 @ Charles Town 16/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 73 · 6f110y Fas 124 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 73 parC5 @ Charles Town 06/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 75 · 6f110y Fas 122 · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 75 par6/06C5OR 75C5 @ Charles Town 21/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 80 · 1m110y 122 · below its mark21/06/2026 · OR 80 parC5 @ Charles Town 04/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 83 · 7f Fas 122 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 83 par4/07C5OR 83C5 @ Charles Town 28/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 74 · 7f Fas 122 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 74 parC8 @ Charles Town 19/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 70 · 6f110y Fas 126 · below its mark19/09/2026 · OR 70 par19/09C8OR 70C8 @ Charles Town 02/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 69 · 6f110y Gd 126 · below its mark02/10/2026 · OR 69 parC5 @ Charles Town 16/10/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 76 · 1m110y Gd 122 · below its mark16/10/2026 · OR 76 par16/10C5OR 76projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-16Charles TownAlexis Jr Rios Conde?6th6th0
2026-10-02Charles TownCarlos Lopez?2nd5th−3
2026-09-19Charles TownArnaldo Bocachica?6th9th−3
2026-08-28Charles TownCarlos Lopez?5th5th0
2026-07-04Charles TownJose Diaz?5th5th0
2026-06-21Charles TownJahnxander Raspaldo?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0121/0619/0916/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 2-7 · tight 48/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength44%

Delivery trend +2.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/01/20263rd12/137%60%+0.23
16/05/20261st5/696%100%+0.04
06/06/20265th5/174%33%-0.40
21/06/20267th33/10%0%0.00
04/07/20265th8/158%50%-0.08
28/08/20265th20/10%50%+0.50
19/09/20266th16/116%38%+0.22
02/10/20262nd14/126%83%+0.57
16/10/20266th12/137%17%-0.20