5
Musical Entourage
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 85
Charles Town · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Charles Town | Nomar Bueno Arroyo | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-10-01 | Charles Town | Nomar Bueno Arroyo | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-09-11 | Charles Town | Nomar Bueno Arroyo | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-13 | Charles Town | Nomar Bueno Arroyo | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-03 | Charles Town | Arnaldo Bocachica | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-06-09 | Mountaineer | Sunday Jr Diaz | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength72%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 03/05/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 29/05/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 38% | -0.44 |
| 09/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 03/07/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 11/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 01/10/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 22/10/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |