3
Paint The Alley
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 82
Charles Town · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Charles Town | Gustavo Larrosa | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-10-02 | Charles Town | Gustavo Larrosa | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-09-12 | Charles Town | Gustavo Larrosa | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-07 | Charles Town | Denis Araujo | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-11 | Charles Town | Gustavo Larrosa | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-07-04 | Charles Town | Gustavo Larrosa | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength83%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 3/10 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 04/07/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 12/09/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 02/10/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 17/10/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |